kaipulla

Mr.Asuran you have told that jobs for india are flying away on BPO & outsourcing it's same.
I agree this what you feel about the future of software field?
According to me:
Software is created,creating and to create for the business purpose only,
to improve the speed of process and to minimize the human errors the computer
softwares are most commonly used for.On the other hand it's using in Entertainments,
Websites these are the most common things that why we are using the softwares.
Jus calculate the No.of Businesses started and No.of Businesses are going to startup
in the future,In certain point the unlimited growth of this field will comes to an end.
The software may have updations like VB to VB.NET and Java to J2EE etc... and they
will increase the flexibility and usage etc... for the existing business softwares.
but calculate how many Bus.... and how many companies are in the field for that process
In certain stage the field will become minimized ex: if there is 1000 companies in chennai
it will become below 100 may be below 10. and this reason will apply for the websites too.
but for entertainment it may takes some few more yrs to fall comparing to the other softwares.
what you thing about this topic, if i was wrong then explain me how the software field will fall down
and how many yrs more for that.

Dear Arun Prabhu,

To know about the befall of IT industry we should know how it all started.

The neo globalisation economic system gave birth to this IT industry in India. The primary reason for jobs flying from US or Europe to India is the tag of Low cost destination. Any other reason could be globally applicable. that means we can not take any specific pride except about this Low cost destination.

During the 1990's the US went ahead with the Globalisation policies to save it's Imperialist Economic interests, as the imperialistc economy was facing Stagnation. And the Russian imperilism was collabsed timedly. thus they have no more compitition in continue with Globalisation. That is the Cold war era was over and the world is under the threat of Single heagemoic force instead of Two Imperialism.

and to be pricisely now Russia also in this wagon. The aim is to exploit the Resources of third world countries for their Market demands, and use this third wolrds as their Market as well. The unstablity and differece in Growth in these third world(between Rural and Cities) and the difference between Western and Eastern countries give breath to the present globalisatoin driven Imperialist Economy.

For that they destroyed the local industrues.
(In India thelocal Small Scale Industries(SSI) are closed instead new SSI doing contract jobs for MNC and Comparader Companies are being created. This expands even to Agarpathi, Match Box, Fishing, Salt etc),

destroying Agriculture, and Destroying our self reliance, and almost destroyed our Soverignity.

If you look at the present state of India, There are vast opportunities in IT, ITES, and other service sectors. And there are opportunities in Automobile Industries too.

But for whom? What is the scope for the over majority rural, urban Unskilled labours? Where they will go?

And in other side this econmy destroies agriculture and produce more and more rural unemployed unskilled labours.

This two coubled to create a huge volume of people under working Poverty. Thie huge mass of Human resource also exploited by this MNCs and Comparader Companies as low cost daily wages(Wipro, TCS, Hindustan Lever, Ashok Leyland, TVS etc as contract employees).

In this scenario only we have to analyse the problems and prospects of IT industry. And we shouldn't forget that US or any other country doesn't have a Aim to make India and China a next Super Power, If somebody is to believe this we can judge his Common sence.

Now come to your queries:

The one point you are mentioning about the stagnation of IT industry is correct. This doesn't have any country specifc problem. This is the problem of Capitalist Industry itself. any Industry will stagnate as they are driven Market.

#1)
The other thing what I have pointed out in this blog so many times is specific to India like third worlds.

That is as for as India could sustain its tag as low cost destination The IT industry will have it's Go. If any other country projected as a low cost destination than India these companies will go out of India(for this I have given example of Wipro, Infosys, TCS, starting compnaies in Latin america, China, Srilanka, East Europe and Affrica).

And there are possibilities that They will still stay in country but enjoy furthur reduction in the Cost to the Employee. This could be achieved by SEZs. To tell the truth the Aim of SEZs are providing this flexibilities to these companies.

British Telecom and Apple were recently vacated India(bangalore), did they give any compensation or any notification periods to those who were working in thrit Indian offices?

Intel and some other companies already said they have no intention to furthur expand business in India. and many other companies stated that India is no more what it was some eight years before - (low cost desitination)

So, the problem of Low Cost destinatin is one thing that would do bad to the lives of IT people.


#2)
The rights of IT employees.

As for as the Salary is relatively high compared to the Average salaray of this Soceity, IT employee will not find his exploitation in the Company as a matter of Concern(culturally, Mentally, physically, pshycologically).

But what happens if his salaray is nothing but a normal one. We don't need to go forth 10 year future. This is eveident even today itself. It is no more the Five digit salary a glamours one in Tier one Cities.

And the important thing is, in future there will be more and more stringent human rights violations and Labour rights violations in India. as the Employers will become more restless due to reduction in their Profits(obviously how long this crazy growth will sustain? and the back effect of this from soceity will also cause more cost to the compnay-ex: salary, and competition from other country). To legally aid thier Human rights and Labour rights violation the already provided law are enough. but our employers are asking more Law haven for doing this. One such haven is Labour law reforms, the other such super haven is SEZ's.(Indian laws are not applicable in SEZs)

Even in USA - where the Government is more people friendly than India- IBM throw their employees like a waste paper. IBM is doing all Ill things to pull out their employees as IBM has good low cost people in Third Country. The IBM employess has formed union (Allianz@IBM) to protect their Rights from IBM - A first of it's kind in the American Corporate history. Last year IBM throw some 30,000 people in Europe and in US.


#2)
The second is Increasing Cost of Living. Which makes the salary hike as nothing but a farce.

The reasons:
a) The retail business is going to be in the hands of MNC and Comparador companies. Which they grab as much from this upper middle class pockets

b)The service economy driven by the IT economy will increase thier cost for ever as for as the IT is on Go. Ex: house rent.

c) privatisation(not mere privatisation - actually this means Corporitasation) of Public services - Health, Education, Electricity, transporation, Water etc will increase cost of Living- the best example is Mumbai and Delhi Corporitisation of Electircity. have ever heard a funny word called 'The Association for users of Water'. Obviously the fool who formed this association doesn't know Every creature in this wolrd is the users of Water. But one should look beyond this Foolish words. if you would aware of the politics behind this you would understand to Which catastroph are we heading toward'.

d) Tax haven given to Corporate companies will be directed to our head.
Ex: 100% Incom tax exemption to all Cyber Zone in India. And a New SEZ will have 100% exemption for another 15 years, Low cose Electricity, Water supply, and No need to mention low cost Human resoureces as well. And from our Tax money they will construct Infrastructure to these guys, For those infrastructure project also 100% tax exemption, and Finally free Land.

Due tax exemptions in SEZs Indian government will loose more One Lakh crore in 2010. and already govet is mulling about cancelling the 80000 crore pending Tax money from corporates.

Just imagin in whoes head all this burden will be placed?

last year starting there was an report that Income Tax Exemptions such as HRA, Housing Loan, Investments, Post office Savings, Insurance etc are going to scrapped. I think The proposal is still avialable in Income Tax web page. and this year starting Manmohan announced that The above IT exemption are going to be scrapped for Corporate, Individuals are barred this time. But yu should be aware of that Corporates in SEZ's will not be affected by this. Then who will be affected? It is national Capitalists will get affected.

Stating the above as a pretext in coming years they will expand this Scrapping process to Individuals. This they have hinted.

This will heavily affect our Five digit salary Dream. remember recently they increased our professional tax. So all the privillages given to MNCs and Comparador Capitalists will be transfered as a Burden to common people.

apart from this There are Service tax regime, which will give exemption from Customs duty to those people, Instead we will pay the burden as Service Tax(now service tax stood at 14%. P. chdamparam told that he will increase this by 1% per year and Finally convert the whole tax regime as service tax regime).

And there are indirect tax as such Tax in Petrol, Diesel(around 56% and 32% respectively).


#3) All this economic process not only affects IT people. Indeed it is the Last sect of people who directly bore the brunt of this Economic evility are IT people. The other common people - Labours, Dalits, Farmers, Small Scale Indutries, Traders- will be affected.

The Rural, Urban Lumpens created by this process is very very huge. The Most manufactured product of this economy is Lumpens. Who lacks the enough opportunities to cultivate themself. and whoes Life is in Abysmelly poor. Just imagine which class will be the target of this group's Social Unrest?

It is obviously the elite upper middle class which is leading a little luxorious life nearer to him is the immediate target(Violence - UnOrganized(Crime) or organized(Revolt)).

But the enemies of Both the Lumpen and the Upper middle class is exploting safely from some corner of the world.

So, by considering all this - The IT people who hae enough opportunity to learn and digest the soceity around them should work towards organizing and Enlightning the other oppressed classes - Workers, Farmers, Lumpens, nationa capitalists, Traders Etc. This they are forced to do for their own well being. This is forced upon them by the natural evolution of this soceity.


Please let me know if my explanation is not clear.

Asuran

Hello Mr. Asuran,

A clear and perfect explanation. I already have some knowledge about these things, You have pointed out that
"The one point you are mentioning about the stagnation of IT industry is correct. This doesn't have any country specifc problem. This is the problem of Capitalist Industry itself. any Industry will stagnate as they are driven Market." i agree with this. I think that fall of software field will make the companies ran away from our land. (On the other hand we want to make a revolution against the SCRAPPING Imperielist & Broker Capitalist). If my point is correct how long they will been here (without our revolution).

Dear Arunprabhu,

It is happy that my explanation is clear. And delighted to know you have some idea about this System and Politics. If possible please send a mail to me.

//. I think that fall of software field will make the companies ran away from our land//

That is to say, the Fall of Low cost Destination Tag will make the those MNCs and Broker Capitaliist to make stringent Exploitation over Indian resources... They will run away from here and come back or they will stay here but they will make sure they are exploiting this huge resource rich country.

That is the point here. This is applicable to IT.

If in future the job opportunity in IT become very slow one, Will you not go for a job that offers very very low wage?


//If my point is correct how long they will been here (without our revolution). //
As long as the world is finished off this kind of poisounous Cycle will continue.
The Global warming is one such Scenario.

I always use to say, we have two options infront of Us

1) A death path for HUman soceity - conflict between Nature and Human
2) the Revolution - Confliction with in Human Soceity

Either one of this will happen. We don't knwo which one is First.

But we have the Scientific method to design this Development. That is we can choose either one of this as first to happen. So choose.

Asuran.

My Mail id is :

asuran@inbox.com